Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 12 January 2022 at 8:30 AM EST. The Consumer Price Index came in at 0.7% for December 2021, against 0.9% in November 2021. Consumer prices are still rising, but more slowly than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Core Consumer Price Index and Core Inflation Rate, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $43,383.14 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 1.3% higher, and an hour later 0.96% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.72% of its price, against 0.91% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 4.54x, against 4.28x for a typical CPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 10.12x, against a typical 6.92x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, CPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 4.75x across 28, against 3.99x across 42. This one came out 14 days before the Federal Reserve's 26 January rate decision. Its own ratio of 4.54x compares with 4.75x for those, about what its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 CPI releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.28x.
What it means
Bitcoin's price reaction to the December CPI release registered as ordinary against the event's established record. The 4.54x volatility ratio came in line with the 4.28x median observed across 70 CPI prints since 2021. The coin rose 1.3 percent in the first fifteen minutes and 0.96 percent after one hour, while its hourly range expanded to 1.72 percent from 0.91 percent beforehand. Volume also increased, reaching 10.12x against the typical 6.92x benchmark.
Timing placed the release fourteen days before the Federal Reserve's January policy meeting. Releases in that window have produced a median volatility ratio of 4.75x since 2021, compared with 3.99x outside it. The observed 4.54x ratio therefore aligned closely with the pattern for pre-decision prints rather than deviating from it.
Traders reviewing the next CPI release can note that proximity to a Federal Reserve decision has historically coincided with larger Bitcoin moves than releases at other times. The current data set shows no evidence that the magnitude of any single surprise alters that timing relationship beyond what the median already captures.
About Consumer Price Index
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the monthly change in prices paid by U.S. consumers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calculates the CPI as a weighted average of prices for a basket of goods and services representative of aggregate U.S. consumer spending. The CPI is one of the most popular measures of inflation and deflation. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
42,659.63Close
43,605.3624h Change
945.73 (2.17%)24h High
44,322.0024h Low
42,450.0024h Volume
34,208 BTCUS Consumer Price Index
Bureau of Labor Statistics
12th January, 2022, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 43397.97 | 43413.00 | 43370.36 | 43383.13 | -0.03% | 0.10% | 52 BTC |
| During | 43383.14 | 43928.88 | 43334.07 | 43646.68 | 0.60% | 1.35% | 879 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 43309.19 | 43413.00 | 43280.01 | 43383.13 | 0.17% | 0.31% | 175 BTC |
| During | 43383.14 | 43928.88 | 43334.07 | 43549.36 | 0.38% | 1.35% | 1,413 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 43260.00 | 43413.00 | 43256.11 | 43383.13 | 0.28% | 0.36% | 314 BTC |
| During | 43383.14 | 43928.88 | 43334.07 | 43768.59 | 0.88% | 1.35% | 2,016 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 43255.02 | 43413.00 | 43187.60 | 43383.13 | 0.30% | 0.52% | 446 BTC |
| During | 43383.14 | 43987.00 | 43334.07 | 43945.96 | 1.28% | 1.48% | 2,472 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 43285.52 | 43413.00 | 43187.60 | 43383.13 | 0.22% | 0.52% | 1,087 BTC |
| During | 43383.14 | 44078.40 | 43334.07 | 43920.97 | 1.22% | 1.69% | 4,141 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 43146.00 | 43413.00 | 43019.37 | 43383.13 | 0.55% | 0.91% | 2,271 BTC |
| During | 43383.14 | 44078.40 | 43334.07 | 43798.34 | 0.95% | 1.69% | 5,371 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 42770.11 | 43443.60 | 42683.21 | 43383.13 | 1.41% | 1.75% | 5,817 BTC |
| During | 43383.14 | 44078.40 | 43334.07 | 43791.41 | 0.93% | 1.69% | 7,475 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 42879.60 | 43443.60 | 42640.13 | 43383.13 | 1.16% | 1.85% | 8,166 BTC |
| During | 43383.14 | 44078.40 | 43317.00 | 43695.22 | 0.71% | 1.73% | 10,949 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 42525.99 | 43443.60 | 42508.69 | 43383.13 | 1.98% | 2.15% | 10,076 BTC |
| During | 43383.14 | 44078.40 | 43317.00 | 43678.85 | 0.68% | 1.73% | 13,070 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 42659.63 | 42909.92 | 42450.00 | 42879.60 | 0.51% | 1.07% | 6,584 BTC |
| During | 42879.60 | 44078.40 | 42640.13 | 43695.22 | 1.87% | 3.26% | 19,115 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 42659.63 | 43443.60 | 42450.00 | 43383.13 | 1.67% | 2.29% | 14,750 BTC |
| During | 43383.14 | 44322.00 | 43317.00 | 43605.36 | 0.51% | 2.27% | 19,458 BTC |
