Data Analysis
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 10.02x, against 4.28x for a typical CPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 29.60x, against a typical 6.92x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $96,505.42 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 2.06% lower, and an hour later 1.87% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 2.6% of its price, against 0.86% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 12 February 2025 at 8:30 AM EST. The Consumer Price Index came in at 0.4% for January 2025, against 0.3% in December 2024. Consumer prices are rising faster than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Core Consumer Price Index and Core Inflation Rate, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, CPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 4.75x across 28, against 3.99x across 42. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 10.02x compares with 3.99x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 CPI releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.28x.
What it means
Bitcoin recorded an exceptional reaction to the January CPI release. Its volatility ratio reached 10.02x in the quarter hour after the print, more than double the 4.28x median across 70 CPI releases since 2021. Volume expanded to 29.60x against the typical 6.92x. The move began from $96,505.42, with the price 2.06 percent lower after fifteen minutes and 1.87 percent lower after one hour; the hourly high-low range widened to 2.6 percent from 0.86 percent beforehand.
This release fell 34 days before the March FOMC decision, outside the two-week window that has historically produced stronger Bitcoin reactions to CPI. The volatility ratio exceeded the 3.99x median recorded for CPI releases outside that window.
Traders monitoring future CPI prints may note that the largest moves have occurred without reference to proximity to policy meetings. The current case demonstrates that an individual release can still generate outsized volatility when the data deviate from the recent trend, independent of the usual calendar effects captured in the longer record.
About Consumer Price Index
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the monthly change in prices paid by U.S. consumers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calculates the CPI as a weighted average of prices for a basket of goods and services representative of aggregate U.S. consumer spending. The CPI is one of the most popular measures of inflation and deflation. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
95,954.28Close
97,886.7924h Change
1932.51 (1.97%)24h High
98,119.9924h Low
94,088.2324h Volume
29,336 BTCUS Consumer Price Index
Bureau of Labor Statistics
12th February, 2025, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 96450.84 | 96507.99 | 96450.84 | 96505.42 | 0.06% | 0.06% | 20 BTC |
| During | 96505.42 | 96600.00 | 95055.04 | 95244.28 | -1.32% | 1.60% | 864 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 96499.99 | 96630.71 | 96409.61 | 96505.42 | 0.01% | 0.23% | 177 BTC |
| During | 96505.42 | 96600.00 | 94844.80 | 94891.30 | -1.70% | 1.82% | 2,334 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 96300.00 | 96631.66 | 96268.18 | 96505.42 | 0.21% | 0.38% | 336 BTC |
| During | 96505.42 | 96600.00 | 94200.00 | 94200.01 | -2.45% | 2.48% | 4,113 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 95962.24 | 96631.66 | 95962.23 | 96505.42 | 0.56% | 0.69% | 476 BTC |
| During | 96505.42 | 96600.00 | 94088.23 | 94520.37 | -2.10% | 2.60% | 4,677 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 95982.97 | 96631.66 | 95800.00 | 96505.42 | 0.54% | 0.86% | 717 BTC |
| During | 96505.42 | 96600.00 | 94088.23 | 94975.38 | -1.61% | 2.60% | 5,484 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 96219.77 | 96631.66 | 95800.00 | 96505.42 | 0.30% | 0.86% | 978 BTC |
| During | 96505.42 | 96600.00 | 94088.23 | 94696.02 | -1.91% | 2.60% | 6,972 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 96209.18 | 96631.66 | 95800.00 | 96505.42 | 0.31% | 0.86% | 1,428 BTC |
| During | 96505.42 | 96600.00 | 94088.23 | 95611.09 | -0.94% | 2.60% | 9,864 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 96139.99 | 96631.66 | 95800.00 | 96505.42 | 0.38% | 0.86% | 2,305 BTC |
| During | 96505.42 | 97522.56 | 94088.23 | 97520.99 | 1.04% | 3.52% | 14,416 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 96079.68 | 96631.66 | 95800.00 | 96505.42 | 0.44% | 0.86% | 3,754 BTC |
| During | 96505.42 | 97700.00 | 94088.23 | 96748.56 | 0.25% | 3.70% | 16,977 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 95954.28 | 96469.78 | 95100.00 | 96140.00 | 0.19% | 1.42% | 4,806 BTC |
| During | 96139.99 | 97522.56 | 94088.23 | 97520.99 | 1.42% | 3.52% | 16,721 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 95954.28 | 96631.66 | 95100.00 | 96505.42 | 0.57% | 1.59% | 7,111 BTC |
| During | 96505.42 | 98119.99 | 94088.23 | 97886.79 | 1.41% | 4.11% | 22,225 BTC |
