BTC Volatility Analysis for CPI, 14th September 2021

Data Analysis

The release

Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 14 September 2021 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Consumer Price Index came in at 0.3% for August 2021, against 0.5% in July 2021. Consumer prices are still rising, but more slowly than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Core Consumer Price Index and Core Inflation Rate, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

How Bitcoin moved

Bitcoin was at $45,768.40 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 1.48% higher, and an hour later 1.8% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 2.02% of its price, against 0.83% in the hour before.

Measured by Clometrix

Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 4.96x, against 4.28x for a typical CPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 5.85x, against a typical 6.92x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

What made it matter

Since 2021, CPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 4.75x across 28, against 3.99x across 42. This one came out 8 days before the Federal Reserve's 22 September rate decision. Its own ratio of 4.96x compares with 4.75x for those, about what its circumstances would suggest.

Its record

Across 70 CPI releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.28x.

What it means

Timing aligned with a standard pre-Fed response

Bitcoin posted a volatility ratio of 4.96x on the release, a result that fell close to the 4.75x median observed across the 28 CPI prints issued in the two weeks before Federal Reserve meetings since 2021. The data arrived eight days ahead of the 22 September policy decision, a window that has consistently produced larger moves than releases at other times. The observed ratio therefore matched the level its circumstances would suggest.

Clometrix classifies the reaction as ordinary for CPI. Across the full set of 70 releases since 2021 the median volatility ratio stands at 4.28x, so the 4.96x reading registered here stayed within the range that normally accompanies the event. Volume rose 5.85x against a typical 6.92x, reinforcing that participation followed the usual pattern.

Traders can note that proximity to a rate decision remains the clearest contextual factor elevating Bitcoin's response to CPI. Releases sharing this timing have shown a median volatility ratio of 4.75x, and the current instance tracked that benchmark without exceeding it. The record supplies no basis for expecting a different magnitude on the next comparable print.

About Consumer Price Index

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the monthly change in prices paid by U.S. consumers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calculates the CPI as a weighted average of prices for a basket of goods and services representative of aggregate U.S. consumer spending. The CPI is one of the most popular measures of inflation and deflation. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.

BTC-USDT

Bitcoin

Open

44,817.72

47,171.30

24h Change

2353.58 (4.99%)

24h High

47,299.00

24h Low

44,768.00

24h Volume

45,052 BTC

US Consumer Price Index

Bureau of Labor Statistics

14th September, 2021, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York

Chart Data from Binance

Observations

Time	Open	High	Low	Close	Change	Amplitude	Volume

1 Minute
Before	45830.93	45839.00	45760.68	45768.40	-0.14%	0.17%	43 BTC
During	45768.40	46160.38	45756.16	46156.78	0.84%	0.88%	196 BTC

5 Minutes
Before	45780.67	45847.63	45760.68	45768.40	-0.03%	0.19%	204 BTC
During	45768.40	46421.15	45756.16	46243.02	1.03%	1.43%	904 BTC

10 Minutes
Before	45863.22	45956.86	45760.68	45768.40	-0.21%	0.43%	403 BTC
During	45768.40	46600.00	45756.16	46349.52	1.25%	1.81%	1,765 BTC

15 Minutes
Before	46041.49	46041.59	45760.68	45768.40	-0.60%	0.61%	558 BTC
During	45768.40	46600.00	45756.16	46445.75	1.46%	1.81%	1,998 BTC

30 Minutes
Before	45973.79	46062.26	45760.68	45768.40	-0.45%	0.65%	952 BTC
During	45768.40	46600.00	45756.16	46532.99	1.64%	1.81%	2,860 BTC

1 Hour
Before	46059.82	46141.78	45760.68	45768.40	-0.64%	0.83%	1,504 BTC
During	45768.40	46678.63	45756.16	46592.52	1.77%	1.98%	4,534 BTC

2 Hours
Before	45887.15	46141.78	45760.68	45768.40	-0.26%	0.83%	2,583 BTC
During	45768.40	46750.00	45756.16	46289.78	1.13%	2.13%	7,886 BTC

4 Hours
Before	45869.25	46178.43	45729.52	45768.40	-0.22%	0.97%	6,025 BTC
During	45768.40	46950.00	45756.16	46692.07	1.98%	2.54%	14,135 BTC

6 Hours
Before	45201.22	46178.43	45148.56	45768.40	1.24%	2.23%	10,627 BTC
During	45768.40	46950.00	45756.16	46436.47	1.44%	2.54%	17,349 BTC

8 Hours
Before	44817.72	45889.39	44768.00	45869.24	2.29%	2.44%	10,518 BTC
During	45869.25	46950.00	45729.52	46692.07	1.76%	2.60%	20,160 BTC

12 Hours
Before	44817.72	46178.43	44768.00	45768.40	2.08%	3.05%	16,543 BTC
During	45768.40	47299.00	45756.16	47171.30	2.97%	3.26%	28,508 BTC