BTC Volatility Analysis for CPI, 10th August 2023

Data Analysis

The release

Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 10 August 2023 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2% for July 2023, against 0.2% in June 2023. Consumer prices are rising at the same pace as before.

It arrived at the same moment as Core Consumer Price Index, Core Inflation Rate, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

How Bitcoin moved

Bitcoin was at $29,555.99 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.06% lower, and an hour later 0.1% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.49% of its price, against 0.28% in the hour before.

Measured by Clometrix

Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 5.00x, against 4.28x for a typical CPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 7.50x, against a typical 6.92x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

What made it matter

Since 2021, CPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 4.75x across 28, against 3.99x across 42. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 5.00x compares with 3.99x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.

Its record

Across 70 CPI releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.28x.

What it means

Bitcoin registered an ordinary reaction to the July CPI release and the cluster of data that arrived with it. The asset moved from $29,555.99 at 8:30 AM to a 0.49 percent high-to-low range in the following hour, against 0.28 percent in the hour before. That produced a volatility ratio of 5.00x and a volume ratio of 7.50x, both measured against the same-day baseline and both close to the medians Clometrix records for CPI since 2021.

Its timing, 40 days before the September FOMC decision, placed it outside the window in which CPI has historically generated larger moves. Releases in that earlier period carry a median volatility ratio of 4.75x; those at other times sit at 3.99x.

Across the full set of 70 CPI releases measured since 2021 the median volatility ratio stands at 4.28x. This outcome aligned with that benchmark and with the classification of ordinary.

About Consumer Price Index

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the monthly change in prices paid by U.S. consumers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calculates the CPI as a weighted average of prices for a basket of goods and services representative of aggregate U.S. consumer spending. The CPI is one of the most popular measures of inflation and deflation. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.

BTC-USDT

Bitcoin

Open

29,625.99

Close

29,486.79

24h Change

-139.20 (-0.47%)

24h High

29,738.00

24h Low

29,320.20

24h Volume

23,350 BTC

US Consumer Price Index

Bureau of Labor Statistics

10th August, 2023, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York

Chart Data from Binance

Observations

Time Open High Low Close Change Amplitude Volume
 
1 Minute
Before29562.0029568.0629550.0029556.00-0.02%0.06%40 BTC
During29555.9929635.2929555.9929612.010.19%0.27%317 BTC
 
5 Minutes
Before29553.2329568.0629550.0029556.000.01%0.06%113 BTC
During29555.9929635.2929555.9929594.050.13%0.27%716 BTC
 
10 Minutes
Before29553.1629568.0629536.0029556.000.01%0.11%269 BTC
During29555.9929635.2929493.4329530.09-0.09%0.48%987 BTC
 
15 Minutes
Before29524.6229568.0629524.6229556.000.11%0.15%370 BTC
During29555.9929635.2929489.0029537.68-0.06%0.49%1,424 BTC
 
30 Minutes
Before29504.0129568.0629491.4929556.000.18%0.26%601 BTC
During29555.9929635.2929489.0029560.970.02%0.49%1,945 BTC
 
1 Hour
Before29520.9729568.0629486.0029556.000.12%0.28%962 BTC
During29555.9929635.2929489.0029585.990.10%0.49%2,329 BTC
 
2 Hours
Before29514.8929568.0629486.0029556.000.14%0.28%1,872 BTC
During29555.9929738.0029489.0029599.020.15%0.84%4,803 BTC
 
4 Hours
Before29513.9929568.0629476.0029556.000.14%0.31%3,504 BTC
During29555.9929738.0029385.0029437.50-0.40%1.19%8,110 BTC
 
6 Hours
Before29540.0629568.0629476.0029556.000.05%0.31%5,273 BTC
During29555.9929738.0029320.2029444.36-0.38%1.40%10,373 BTC
 
8 Hours
Before29625.9929660.0629491.1129514.00-0.38%0.57%6,876 BTC
During29513.9929738.0029385.0029437.50-0.26%1.19%11,615 BTC
 
12 Hours
Before29625.9929660.0629476.0029556.00-0.24%0.62%10,381 BTC
During29555.9929738.0029320.2029486.79-0.23%1.40%12,969 BTC

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