BTC Volatility Analysis for CPI, 12th October 2023

Data Analysis

The release

Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 12 October 2023 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Consumer Price Index came in at 0.4% for September 2023, against 0.5% in August 2023. Consumer prices are still rising, but more slowly than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Core Consumer Price Index, Core Inflation Rate, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

How Bitcoin moved

Bitcoin was at $26,822.81 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.06% higher, and an hour later 0.22% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.45% of its price, against 0.48% in the hour before.

Measured by Clometrix

Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 2.43x, against 4.28x for a typical CPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 2.79x, against a typical 6.92x. That is a muted reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

What made it matter

Since 2021, CPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 4.75x across 28, against 3.99x across 42. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 2.43x compares with 3.99x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.

Its record

Across 70 CPI releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.28x.

What it means

Bitcoin registered a muted reaction to the September CPI release and the accompanying data that arrived at the same moment. The price stood at $26,822.81 at 8:30 AM EDT. Fifteen minutes later it had risen 0.06 percent and an hour later it sat 0.22 percent lower. The high-to-low range in that hour reached only 0.45 percent of the prior price, barely below the 0.48 percent range recorded in the hour before the prints.

Clometrix measured Bitcoin’s volatility ratio at 2.43x and its volume ratio at 2.79x for the quarter hour of the release. Both figures fall well short of the medians recorded across CPI releases since 2021: 4.28x for volatility and 6.92x for volume.

This release fell outside the two-week window ahead of a Federal Reserve decision, landing nineteen days before the November 1 meeting. Across the record, CPI prints inside that window have produced a median volatility ratio of 4.75x, compared with 3.99x for prints further away. The 2.43x outcome here therefore sits below even the lower benchmark that its timing would normally imply. Traders reviewing the next CPI release can note that distance from policy meetings has coincided with smaller price ranges in the past, yet the present case also shows that even non-proximate releases can produce volatility ratios below their own category median when the data print itself contains limited surprise.

About Consumer Price Index

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the monthly change in prices paid by U.S. consumers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calculates the CPI as a weighted average of prices for a basket of goods and services representative of aggregate U.S. consumer spending. The CPI is one of the most popular measures of inflation and deflation. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.

BTC-USDT

Bitcoin

Open

26,826.37

26,837.93

24h Change

11.56 (0.04%)

24h High

26,947.04

24h Low

26,555.00

24h Volume

23,371 BTC

US Consumer Price Index

Bureau of Labor Statistics

12th October, 2023, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York

Chart Data from Binance

Observations

Time	Open	High	Low	Close	Change	Amplitude	Volume

1 Minute
Before	26816.52	26837.26	26816.52	26822.82	0.02%	0.08%	12 BTC
During	26822.81	26822.82	26764.48	26797.02	-0.10%	0.22%	96 BTC

5 Minutes
Before	26800.01	26837.26	26800.00	26822.82	0.09%	0.14%	67 BTC
During	26822.81	26854.42	26753.20	26786.96	-0.13%	0.38%	322 BTC

10 Minutes
Before	26822.14	26837.26	26800.00	26822.82	0.00%	0.14%	127 BTC
During	26822.81	26854.42	26753.20	26838.50	0.06%	0.38%	428 BTC

15 Minutes
Before	26810.88	26837.26	26800.00	26822.82	0.04%	0.14%	177 BTC
During	26822.81	26854.42	26753.20	26839.62	0.06%	0.38%	529 BTC

30 Minutes
Before	26837.84	26857.25	26790.20	26822.82	-0.06%	0.25%	397 BTC
During	26822.81	26854.42	26753.20	26829.99	0.03%	0.38%	837 BTC

1 Hour
Before	26737.16	26867.14	26737.15	26822.82	0.32%	0.48%	996 BTC
During	26822.81	26862.74	26742.00	26764.93	-0.22%	0.45%	1,395 BTC

2 Hours
Before	26733.50	26867.14	26721.79	26822.82	0.33%	0.54%	1,798 BTC
During	26822.81	26862.74	26673.74	26690.00	-0.50%	0.70%	2,548 BTC

4 Hours
Before	26796.08	26867.14	26655.60	26822.82	0.10%	0.79%	4,946 BTC
During	26822.81	26862.74	26566.15	26732.40	-0.34%	1.10%	5,277 BTC

6 Hours
Before	26890.48	26920.81	26655.60	26822.82	-0.25%	0.99%	6,856 BTC
During	26822.81	26862.74	26555.00	26704.67	-0.44%	1.15%	8,100 BTC

8 Hours
Before	26826.37	26947.04	26735.83	26796.08	-0.11%	0.78%	6,718 BTC
During	26796.08	26867.14	26566.15	26732.40	-0.24%	1.12%	10,222 BTC

12 Hours
Before	26826.37	26947.04	26655.60	26822.82	-0.01%	1.08%	11,664 BTC
During	26822.81	26862.74	26555.00	26837.93	0.06%	1.15%	11,707 BTC