Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 12 May 2021 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Consumer Price Index came in at 0.6% for April 2021, against 0.5% in March 2021. Consumer prices are rising faster than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Core Consumer Price Index and Core Inflation Rate, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 1.29x, against 4.28x for a typical CPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.39x, against a typical 6.92x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $56,604.55 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.43% lower, and an hour later 1.29% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.6% of its price, against 0.85% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, CPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 4.75x across 28, against 3.99x across 42. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 1.29x compares with 3.99x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
What it means
Bitcoin registered a quiet reaction to the April 2021 CPI release. Its volatility ratio reached only 1.29x in the quarter hour after the 8:30 AM print, well below the 4.28x median recorded across CPI events since 2021. Volume rose by a similarly muted 1.39x against the event norm of 6.92x. Both ratios compare the release window to an ordinary quarter hour the same day, confirming the market registered almost no incremental movement.
The release arrived 34 days ahead of the June FOMC decision and therefore outside the two-week window in which CPI prints have historically produced larger Bitcoin moves. Clometrix data show a median volatility ratio of 4.75x for the 28 releases inside that window and 3.99x for the 42 releases farther away. The observed 1.29x therefore fell short of what the calendar position alone would have implied.
Price action stayed contained. Bitcoin stood at $56,604.55 at the moment of release, slipped 0.43 percent in the first fifteen minutes and 1.29 percent after one hour. The high-to-low range expanded to 1.6 percent of spot in the hour after the data, compared with 0.85 percent in the preceding hour.
Traders monitoring the next CPI can note that releases timed well clear of FOMC meetings have produced smaller median volatility ratios than those clustered near policy decisions. This instance simply extended that pattern.
About Consumer Price Index
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the monthly change in prices paid by U.S. consumers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calculates the CPI as a weighted average of prices for a basket of goods and services representative of aggregate U.S. consumer spending. The CPI is one of the most popular measures of inflation and deflation. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
56,969.99Close
49,724.7724h Change
-7245.22 (-14.57%)24h High
58,000.0124h Low
46,000.0024h Volume
110,438 BTCUS Consumer Price Index
Bureau of Labor Statistics
12th May, 2021, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 56584.96 | 56615.45 | 56578.90 | 56604.56 | 0.03% | 0.06% | 38 BTC |
| During | 56604.55 | 56604.55 | 56330.01 | 56334.18 | -0.48% | 0.49% | 187 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 56536.05 | 56615.45 | 56500.00 | 56604.56 | 0.12% | 0.20% | 181 BTC |
| During | 56604.55 | 56604.55 | 56188.01 | 56204.52 | -0.71% | 0.74% | 560 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 56593.83 | 56615.45 | 56500.00 | 56604.56 | 0.02% | 0.20% | 296 BTC |
| During | 56604.55 | 56604.55 | 56164.00 | 56306.36 | -0.53% | 0.78% | 876 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 56415.30 | 56615.45 | 56353.02 | 56604.56 | 0.33% | 0.46% | 486 BTC |
| During | 56604.55 | 56604.55 | 56164.00 | 56359.18 | -0.44% | 0.78% | 1,026 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 56421.45 | 56615.45 | 56203.55 | 56604.56 | 0.32% | 0.73% | 1,101 BTC |
| During | 56604.55 | 56604.55 | 56164.00 | 56316.76 | -0.51% | 0.78% | 1,622 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 56174.66 | 56615.45 | 56131.56 | 56604.56 | 0.76% | 0.85% | 2,337 BTC |
| During | 56604.55 | 56604.55 | 55700.00 | 55875.51 | -1.30% | 1.60% | 3,441 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 56387.97 | 56615.45 | 55950.45 | 56604.56 | 0.38% | 1.17% | 5,830 BTC |
| During | 56604.55 | 56900.00 | 55700.00 | 56712.96 | 0.19% | 2.11% | 7,295 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 56620.58 | 57195.50 | 55950.45 | 56604.56 | -0.03% | 2.18% | 11,751 BTC |
| During | 56604.55 | 56900.00 | 54700.00 | 55071.51 | -2.78% | 3.87% | 18,477 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 57103.18 | 57250.00 | 55950.45 | 56604.56 | -0.88% | 2.27% | 16,160 BTC |
| During | 56604.55 | 56900.00 | 54011.00 | 54369.18 | -4.11% | 5.08% | 27,406 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 56969.99 | 58000.01 | 56611.12 | 56620.58 | -0.62% | 2.39% | 19,518 BTC |
| During | 56620.58 | 57195.50 | 54700.00 | 55071.51 | -2.81% | 4.36% | 30,228 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 56969.99 | 58000.01 | 55950.45 | 56604.56 | -0.65% | 3.53% | 31,269 BTC |
| During | 56604.55 | 56900.00 | 46000.00 | 49724.77 | -13.84% | 19.16% | 79,169 BTC |
