ADA Volatility Analysis for Continued Claims, 16th January 2025

Data Analysis

The release

Released by the Department of Labor on 16 January 2025 at 8:30 AM EST. Continued Jobless Claims rose to 1888K for the week ending 4th Jan, from 1850K in the week ending 28th Dec.

It arrived at the same moment as Retail Sales, Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles, Import Price Index, Export Price Index and Initial Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

Measured by Clometrix

Cardano's volatility ratio was 0.97x, against 1.35x for a typical Continued Claims release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 3.40x, against a typical 1.63x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Cardano moved

Cardano was at $1.0800 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.93% higher, and an hour later 1.85% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.85% of its price, against 3.7% in the hour before.

What made it matter

Since 2021, Continued Claims releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Cardano about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.33x across 93, against 1.36x across 206. This one came out 13 days before the Federal Reserve's 29 January rate decision. Its own ratio of 0.97x compares with 1.33x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.

About Continued Jobless Claims

The weekly claims report is released Thursdays at 8:30 a.m. ET by the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL). Continued claims, also referred to as insured unemployment, is the number of people who have already filed an initial claim and who have experienced a week of unemployment and then filed a continued claim to claim benefits for that week of unemployment. Continued claims data are based on the week of unemployment, not the week when the initial claim was filed.